Forecasting COVID-19 Pandemic using Prophet, LSTM, hybrid GRU-LSTM, CNN-LSTM, Bi-LSTM and Stacked-LSTM for India

The COVID-19 Pandemic has been around for four years and remains a health concern for everyone. Although things are somewhat returning to normal, increased incidence of COVID-19 cases in some regions of the world (such as China, Japan, France, South Korea, etc.) has bred worry and anxiety in world, including India. The scientific community, which includes governmental organizations and healthcare facilities, was eager to learn how the COVID-19 Pandemic would develop. The current work makes an attempt to address this question by employing cutting-edge machine learning and Deep Learning algorithms to anticipate the daily incidence of COVID-19 for India over the course of the next six months. For the purpose famous timeseries algorithms were implemented including LSTM, Bi-Directional LSTM and Stacked LSTM and Prophet. Owing to success of hybrid algorithms in specific problem domains- the present study also focuses on such algorithms like GRU-LSTM, CNN-LSTM and LSTM with Attention. All these models have been trained on timeseries dataset of COVID-19 for India and performance metrics are recorded. Of all the models, the simplistic algorithms have performed better than complex and hybrid ones. Owing to this best result was obtained with Prophet, Bidirectional LSTM and Vanilla LSTM. The forecast reveals flat nature of COVID-19 case load for India in future six months. . © 2023 IEEE.

The Impact of Socioeconomic and Demographic Factors on COVID-19 Forecasting Model

Background: COVID-19 has become a primary public health issue in various countries across the world. The main difficulty in managing outbreaks of infectious diseases is due to the difference in geographical, demographic, economic inequalities and people's behavior in each region. The spread of disease acts like a series of diverse regional outbreaks;each part has its disease transmission pattern. Objective: This study aims to assess the association of socioeconomic and demographic factors to COVID-19 cases through cluster analysis and forecast the daily cases of COVID-19 in each cluster using a predictive modeling technique. Methods: This study applies a hierarchical clustering approach to group regencies and cities based on their socioeconomic and demographic similarities. After that, a time-series forecasting model, Facebook Prophet, is developed in each cluster to assess the transmissibility risk of COVID-19 over a short period of time. Results: A high incidence of COVID-19 was found in clusters with better socioeconomic conditions and densely populated. The Prophet model forecasted the daily cases of COVID-19 in each cluster, with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 0.0869;0.1513;and 0.1040, respectively, for cluster 1, cluster 2, and cluster 3. Conclusion: Socioeconomic and demographic factors were associated with different COVID-19 waves in a region. From the study, we found that considering socioeconomic and demographic factors to forecast COVID-19 cases played a crucial role in determining the risk in that area. © 2023 The Authors. Published by Universitas Airlangga.

U.S. Public Transportation Ridership Analysis and Prediction based on COVID-19

In this paper, a research was conducted to analyse and predict the impacts of COVID-19 on public transportation ridership in the U.S. and 5 most populous cities of the U.S. (New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, Philadelphia). The paper aims to exploit the correlation between COVID-19 and public transportation ridership in the U.S. and make the reasonable prediction by machine learning models, including ARIMA and Prophet, to help the local governments improve the rationality of their policy implementation. After correlation analyses, high level of significant and negative correlations between monthly growth rate of COVID-19 infections and monthly growth rate of public transportation ridership are decidedly validated in the total U.S., and New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, Philadelphia, except Houston. To analyse the errors of Houston, we consult the literature and made a discussion of Influencing factors. We find that the level of public transportation in quantity and utilization is terribly low in Houston. In addition, the factors, such as the lack of planning law and estimation of urban expressways, the high level of citizens' dependence on private cars and pride of owning cars play a considerable roll in the errors. And the impacts can be predicted to a certain extent through two forecasting models (ARIMA and Prophet), although the precision of our models is not enough to make a precise forecast due to the limitations of model tuning and model design. According to the comparison of the two models, ARIMA models' forecasting accuracy is between 6% and 10%, and Prophet's forecasting accuracy is between 8%-12%, depending on the city. Since the insufficient stationarity, periodicity, seasonality of time series, the Prophet models are hard be more refined. © 2023 SPIE.

Forecasting of COVID-19 Pandemic Using ARIMA and Fb-Prophet Models: UK Case Study

This study aims to provide insights into predicting future cases of COVID-19 infection and rates of virus transmission in the UK by critically analyzing and visualizing historical COVID-19 data, so that healthcare providers can prepare ahead of time. In order to achieve this goal, the study invested in the existing studies and selected ARIMA and Fb-Prophet time series models as the methods to predict confirmed and death cases in the following year. In a comparison of both models using values of their evaluation metrics, root-mean-square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error show that ARIMA performs better than Fb-Prophet. The study also discusses the reasons for the dramatic spike in mortality and the large drop in deaths shown in the results, contributing to the literature on health analytics and COVID-19 by validating the results of related studies. Copyright © 2023 by SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications, Lda. Under CC license (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0)

Forecasting the Spread of COVID-19 Using Deep Learning and Big Data Analytics Methods.

To contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a need for cutting-edge approaches that make use of existing technology capabilities. Forecasting its spread in a single or multiple countries ahead of time is a common strategy in most research. There is, however, a need for all-inclusive studies that capitalize on the entire regions on the African continent. This study closes this gap by conducting a wide-ranging investigation and analysis to forecast COVID-19 cases and identify the most critical countries in terms of the COVID-19 pandemic in all five major African regions. The proposed approach leveraged both statistical and deep learning models that included the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with a seasonal perspective, the long-term memory (LSTM), and Prophet models. In this approach, the forecasting problem was considered as a univariate time series problem using confirmed cumulative COVID-19 cases. The model performance was evaluated using seven performance metrics that included the mean-squared error, root mean-square error, mean absolute percentage error, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, peak signal-to-noise ratio, normalized root mean-square error, and the R2 score. The best-performing model was selected and used to make future predictions for the next 61 days. In this study, the long short-term memory model performed the best. Mali, Angola, Egypt, Somalia, and Gabon from the Western, Southern, Northern, Eastern, and Central African regions, with an expected increase of 22.77%, 18.97%, 11.83%, 10.72%, and 2.81%, respectively, were the most vulnerable countries with the highest expected increase in the number of cumulative positive cases.

Predictive Analytics of Stock Market as a Time Series

This paper presents a new methodology and a comparative study using past stock market data that can help businesses take investing or divesting decisions in critical situations in the future. These may be like the COVID-19 pandemic, where market volatility is extremely high, thus creating an urgent need for better decision support systems to minimise loss and ensure better profits. The results of the study are based on the comparison of different configurations of ARIMAX, Prophet, LSTM and Bidirectional LSTM Models trained on historical NSE data. By understanding the correlation and variations in the data processing and model training parameters, we have successfully proposed a LSTM neural network model training and optimising method which could successfully help businesses take both long and short term profitable decisions before and after big financial and market crises with a respective accuracy of 98.60 percent and 96.97 percent. © 2022 IEEE.

Using Time Series Forecasting for Analysis of GDP Growth in India

Gross Domestic Product is one of the most important economic indicators of the country and its positive or negative growth indicates the economic development of the country. It is calculated quarterly and yearly at the end of the financial year. The GDP growth of India has seen fluctuations from last few decades after independence and reached as high as 10.25 in 2010 and declined to low of -5.23 in 1979. The GDP growth has witnessed a continuous decline in the past five years, taking it from 8.15 in 2015 to 1.87 in 2020.The lockdown imposed in the country to curb the spread of COVID-19 has caused massive slowdown in the economy of the country by affecting all major contributing sectors of the GDP except agricultural sector. To keep on track on the GDP growth is one of the parameters for deciding the economic policies of the country. In this study, we are analyzing and forecasting the GDP growth using the time series forecasting techniques Prophet and Arima model. This model can assist policy makers in framing policies or making decisions.

Detection of COVID-19 using ResNet50, VGG19, MobileNet, and Forecasting, using Logistic Regression, Prophet, and SEIRD Model

Artificial Intelligence can quickly identify hazardous viral strains in humans. To detect COVID-19 symptoms, AI algorithms can be used to train to examine medical images like X-rays and CT scans. This can help healthcare providers to diagnose the disease more accurately and quickly. AI helps examine data on the spread of COVID-19 andmake predictions about how it will likely spread in the future. Machine learning algorithms known as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) are highly effective at evaluating images. As a result, CNN could assist in the early detection of COVID-19 by evaluating medical images like X-rays and CT scans to spot the disease's symptoms. This article's main aim is to provide brief information on some of the CNN models to detect and forecast COVID-19. The models were purely trained with Chest X-ray images of different categorized patients. The COVID-19 prediction models like ResNet50, VGG19, and MobileNet give accuracies of 98.50%, 97.68%, and 93.94%, respectively. On the other hand, forecasting also plays a vital role in reducing the pandemic because it helps us to analyze the risk and plan a solution to avoid it. The model is trained with some forecasting techniques like Prophet, LogisticRegression, and S EIRD model based on a text-based dataset that contains parameters such as the number of people infected per day recovered per day an d many more for visualizing the trends in forecasting, which help in decision-making to analyze risks and plan solutions to prevent the further spread of the disease. © 2023 IEEE.

COVID-19 Prediction Using Time Series Models

Real-time data has evolved to become an integral part of understanding events across different timelines. Machine Learning uses different varieties of algorithms to determine the relationship between sets of data spread across timelines, visualize the current situation, and forecast the future, which is the most important aspect. Due to the breakout of COVID-19, a novel coronavirus, the entire planet is currently experiencing a disastrous crisis. At this time, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has proven to be a possible hazard to human life. The ARIMA Model i.e., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average is compared with Facebook's Prophet and VARMAX model to foretell the future. The dataset is divided into the training and testing set. The size of the COVID-19 dataset is relatively small as it is a pandemic that occurred recently, due to which much of the data is used for training purposes and the last twelve days have been used for testing and validating the model. The model is trained and fits on the training data set. The algorithms are now ready to anticipate future forecasts after it has been tested and trained. The models also record the predicted and actual values, allowing them to improve their accuracy in the future. In this paper, the results of the ARIMA model are compared against Prophet and VARMAX which are other popular machine learning time series models. For the ease of visualization of covid trends, a dashboard is built using Python's Plotly and Dash and has been deployed using Voila. © 2022 IEEE.

The personas and motivation of religious tourists and their impact on intentions to visit religious sites in Saudi Arabia

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to provide comprehensive, theoretical and practical knowledge that will assist decision-makers in making informed decisions when promoting several religious sites in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Specifically, this study examines the popularity of several religious sites, the personas of prospective visitors and their intentions to visit.Design/methodology/approachThe study uses several methodological approaches to fulfil its main objective, namely, Google Trends analysis, K-means cluster analysis and linear regression analysis.FindingsThe results reveal that several religious sites in the KSA are popular and have potential for further consideration by various stakeholders. In addition, four personas were identified which can aid decision-makers and marketing practitioners in designing suitable plans for prospective visitors based on the participants' motivation and demographics. Furthermore, a significant association was observed among three motivational variables (self-esteem, relationship and physiological needs) and the participants' intentions to visit.Originality/valueThis study makes an original contribution to the literature, as it examines several religious sites in Saudi Arabia in addition to the sites that are part of the practices of Hajj and Umrah. Furthermore, this study provides comprehensive knowledge in this area to assist both future researchers and practitioners.

Quantifying the impact of COVID-19 on essential health services: a comparison of interrupted time series analysis using Prophet and Poisson regression models.

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) altered healthcare utilization patterns. However, there is a dearth of literature comparing methods for quantifying the extent to which the pandemic disrupted healthcare service provision in sub-Saharan African countries. OBJECTIVE: To compare interrupted time series analysis using Prophet and Poisson regression models in evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on essential health services. METHODS: We used reported data from Uganda's Health Management Information System from February 2018 to December 2020. We compared Prophet and Poisson models in evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on new clinic visits, diabetes clinic visits, and in-hospital deliveries between March 2020 to December 2020 and across the Central, Eastern, Northern, and Western regions of Uganda. RESULTS: The models generated similar estimates of the impact of COVID-19 in 10 of the 12 outcome-region pairs evaluated. Both models estimated declines in new clinic visits in the Central, Northern, and Western regions, and an increase in the Eastern Region. Both models estimated declines in diabetes clinic visits in the Central and Western regions, with no significant changes in the Eastern and Northern regions. For in-hospital deliveries, the models estimated a decline in the Western Region, no changes in the Central Region, and had different estimates in the Eastern and Northern regions. CONCLUSIONS: The Prophet and Poisson models are useful in quantifying the impact of interruptions on essential health services during pandemics but may result in different measures of effect. Rigor and multimethod triangulation are necessary to study the true effect of pandemics on essential health services.

Machine learning and automatic ARIMA/Prophet models-based forecasting of COVID-19: methodology, evaluation, and case study in SAARC countries.

Machine learning (ML) has proved to be a prominent study field while solving complex real-world problems. The whole globe has suffered and continues suffering from Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and its projections need to be forecasted. In this article, we propose and derive an autoregressive modeling framework based on ML and statistical methods to predict confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. Automatic forecasting models based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and Prophet time series structures, as well as extreme gradient boosting, generalized linear model elastic net (GLMNet), and random forest ML techniques, are introduced and applied to COVID-19 data from the SAARC countries. Different forecasting models are compared by means of selection criteria. By using evaluation metrics, the best and suitable models are selected. Results prove that the ARIMA model is found to be suitable and ideal for forecasting confirmed infected cases of COVID-19 in these countries. For the confirmed cases in Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Maldives, and Sri Lanka, the ARIMA model is superior to the other models. In Bhutan, the Prophet time series model is appropriate for predicting such cases. The GLMNet model is more accurate than other time-series models for Nepal and Pakistan. The random forest model is excluded from forecasting because of its poor fit.

Forecasting container freight rates using the Prophet forecasting method

This study applies three innovative methods in forecasting container freight rates. Firstly, we extracted 471 major disruptive events from the ‘Lloyds List' database from 2010 until 2020, that may affect freight rates. Secondly, we use Machine Learning (ML) and natural language processing techniques to categorize these events into six distinct categories. These include: "congestion”, "peak demand”, "policy”, "price up”, "overcapacity”, and "coronavirus”. Thirdly, we apply Prophet forecasting on six major container routes by incorporating the six categories of events. The results reveal that ‘overcapacity' and ‘coronavirus' led to improved forecasting accuracy of freight rates when compared to the Prophet model without accounting for events. This study provides a more reliable mixed-method approach to improving the accuracy of container freight rate forecasts. The proposed forecasting technique will help policy makers and practitioners to develop and deploy strategies to mitigate the risks associated with the volatility of freight rates and supply chain costings. © 2023 The Authors

Time Series Forecasting of COVID-19 Mortality in SADC region with Facebook Prophet Model

This study proposes Facebook-Prophet model for understanding and forecasting of corona virus (COVID-19) mortality in Southern African Development Community (SADC) region over a 90-day time period. Findings showed that COVID-19 mortality in SADC region is expected to degrade in the near future. Model performance metrics were used to compute prediction performance. These results implied that the selected model was satisfactory and reliable. Findings of the study are expected to raise situational awareness into better understanding of the pandemic and to provide support for strategic health decisions for better management of COVID-19 disease. Moreover, the study provides a series of recommendations to be followed in order to decline COVID-19 related deaths in SADC countries. © 2022 IEEE.

Can financial stress be anticipated and explained? Uncovering the hidden pattern using EEMD-LSTM, EEMD-prophet, and XAI methodologies.

Global financial stress is a critical variable that reflects the ongoing state of several key macroeconomic indicators and financial markets. Predictive analytics of financial stress, nevertheless, has seen very little focus in literature as of now. Futuristic movements of stress in markets can be anticipated if the same can be predicted with a satisfactory level of precision. The current research resorts to two granular hybrid predictive frameworks to discover the inherent pattern of financial stress across several critical variables and geography. The predictive structure utilizes the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) for granular time series decomposition. The Long Short-Term Memory Network (LSTM) and Facebook's Prophet algorithms are invoked on top of the decomposed components to scrupulously investigate the predictability of final stress variables regulated by the Office of Financial Research (OFR). A rigorous feature screening using the Boruta methodology has been utilized too. The findings of predictive exercises reveal that financial stress across assets and continents can be predicted accurately in short and long-run horizons even at the time of steep financial distress during the COVID-19 pandemic. The frameworks appear to be statistically significant at the expense of model interpretation. To resolve the issue, dedicated Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) methods have been used to interpret the same. The immediate past information of financial stress indicators largely explains patterns in the long run, while short-run fluctuations can be tracked by closely monitoring several technical indicators.

Solving resource forecasting in WiFi Network by NeuralProphet

Time series forecasting needs several approaches such as data pretreatment, model construction, etc. During the covid 19 outbreak, the data is very dynamic, therefore data processing and appropriate modeling are worried. Identifying patterns, recognizing abnormal data points, is one of the first stages to enhancing forecast outcomes. A point is considered an anomalous point when it is far distant from the mean of the data series. In this research, we deploy an automated anomaly detection approach that incorporates data preparation of neuralprophet library. After that, we design a model via neuralprophet to predict data after preprocessing data. The strategy is evaluated on a dataset of the times that public wifi was used every day with the purpose of forecasting the value of the following 30 days. The anticipated outcome is compared with that of Prophet, hybrid AR-LSTM, consequently indicating that the suggested technique in the study offers the best outcomes. © 2022 ACM.

COVID-19 Pandemic vis-à-vis Zamboanga Peninsula Aviation: A Predictive Analysis

The use of time-series analysis to examine aviation data trends through time comes crucial in planning its future. The prophet is an additive model that fits non-linear patterns. It functions best with historical data from various seasons and time series with significant seasonal impacts. This research looked closely into the aviation data in Zamboanga Peninsula, Jolo, and Tawi-Tawi to give a clearer picture of its impact on the sector and forecast passenger and aircraft movement in the coming months to see whether the impact of the opening in the aviation industry can be sustained. The final data comprise 51 data points for flight arrivals and departures and 51 data points for passenger arrivals and departures. Data show the decline in passengers and aircrafts arriving and departing in major airports in Zamboanga Peninsula, Jolo, and Tawi-Tawi during the pandemic. However, an increasing trend was observed years after the pandemic hit the region. Findings during the training and testing phase revealed that different models attained varied results;however, there are models which attained a higher degree of accuracy as depicted in the RMSE and R2. This indicates that predicting passenger and aircraft movement using models with higher accuracy is similar to real data thus, it is viable in predicting future values. Forecasting results further show a gradually increasing trend of aircraft and passenger arrivals in the major airports in Zamboanga Peninsula, Jolo, and Tawi-Tawi despite some observed smaller forecasted values. © 2022 IEEE.

Outbreak Prediction of COVID-19 3rd Wave in Asia

Coronavirus is a pandemic for whole world and infected more than 200 countries of the world. Spreading of coronavirus started from china at the end of December and within three months, it infected whole world. Coronavirus is belonging to beta coronavirus family. Common symptoms of coronavirus are fever, dry cough, fatigue, and respiratory-related problem. This paper tries to study the infection rate of coronavirus in Asian countries, rest of world countries, and overall world countries. Asia is largest continent of the world which contains approximate 50 countries and highest contributes in GDP. Population of Asian countries 446.27 crore, that is 60 percentage of whole world population and covers 30 percent geographical area of world. China and India are the most populated countries in Asia. Total confirmed cases 2,056,051, recovered cases 502,045, and death cases 134,177 in the world. Scholar also divides the Asia continent into six regions such East, South, Central, North, Southeast and Western Asia for better understanding infection of coronavirus. This paper analyzes the confirmed cases, recovered cases, and death cases in Asia and understands the infection pattern date wise and countries wise. Machine learning algorithm is used for prediction infection in the world and also predicts future infection rate and death rate in Asian countries and world. Prophet is used for future prediction of confirmed and death cases in the Asian countries. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

Machine Learning and Deep Learning Based Time Series Prediction and Forecasting of Ten Nations' COVID-19 Pandemic.

In the paper, the authors investigated and predicted the future environmental circumstances of a COVID-19 to minimize its effects using artificial intelligence techniques. The experimental investigation of COVID-19 instances has been performed in ten countries, including India, the United States, Russia, Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Italy, Turkey, Germany, and France using machine learning, deep learning, and time series models. The confirmed, deceased, and recovered datasets from January 22, 2020, to May 29, 2021, of Novel COVID-19 cases were considered from the Kaggle COVID dataset repository. The country-wise Exploratory Data Analysis visually represents the active, recovered, closed, and death cases from March 2020 to May 2021. The data are pre-processed and scaled using a MinMax scaler to extract and normalize the features to obtain an accurate prediction rate. The proposed methodology employs Random Forest Regressor, Decision Tree Regressor, K Nearest Regressor, Lasso Regression, Linear Regression, Bayesian Regression, Theilsen Regression, Kernel Ridge Regressor, RANSAC Regressor, XG Boost, Elastic Net Regressor, Facebook Prophet Model, Holt Model, Stacked Long Short-Term Memory, and Stacked Gated Recurrent Units to predict active COVID-19 confirmed, death, and recovered cases. Out of different machine learning, deep learning, and time series models, Random Forest Regressor, Facebook Prophet, and Stacked LSTM outperformed to predict the best results for COVID-19 instances with the lowest root-mean-square and highest R 2 score values.

COVID-19 Outbreak Prediction using Additive Time Series Forecasting Model

It is no secret that COVID-19 is a hot topic these days. Its spread has engulfed the world. People all throughout the world have suffered because of it. A unique coronavirus epidemic that has swept throughout the globe is examined and analysed in this article. COVID-19 outbreaks in various places are analysed using machine learning models, which are visualised using charts, tables, graphs and predictions depending on the available data. For prediction models, the time series forecasting package (PROPHET) is utilised as part of machine learning. The work done may aid in the development of some novel concepts and ways that can be utilised as recommendations to prevent the spread of COVOD-19. © 2022, Walailak University. All rights reserved.